A Closer Look At The 2024 Global Ecommerce Growth Rate Forecast

Overview

The 2024 global e-commerce market forecast unfolds against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war, introducing an additional layer of complexity to industry dynamics. The geopolitical tensions have led to shifts in consumer behavior, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuations in currency values, impacting this landscape.

Besides, the COVID-19 pandemic has also profoundly influenced e-commerce experienced a peak growth rate in 2021. Global lockdowns and the closure of brick-and-mortar stores during the pandemic compelled consumers to shift towards online retail. 

However, as countries relaxed COVID-19 restrictions in 2022, the trend reversed and consumers returned to physical stores, resulting in a relative decline in online retail growth rates.

The global demand for various products directly shapes the trajectory of e-commerce growth. This year, the pivotal industry contributors are still:

• Electronics
• Fashion
• Beauty and Personal Care
• Books and Stationery
• Food
• Furniture
• Toys and Hobbies
• Tobacco products
• DIY and hardware stores
• Household essentials
• Others

Categorizing the market based on product types reveals the dominant transactions of 

• B2B
• B2C
• C2C 

Regional dynamics further remarkably influence the e-commerce market, in which 

• North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico)
• Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, etc.)
• Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.)
• South America (Brazil, Argentina, Columbia, etc.)
• The Middle East and Africa (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, South Africa, etc.) 

Among the key players driving this evolution are industry giants such as 

• Amazon
• Apple
• JD
• Taobao
• Tmall
• Walmart
• Others. 

Global E-commerce Sales Growth

The most recent eMarketers report foresees a significant upswing in the e-commerce sector, estimating a 9.4% increase in global sales for 2024. 

Reflecting the sustained global preference for online shopping, this surge propels total e-commerce sales to $6.3 trillion, marking a 0.5% rise from the previous year.

Global e-commerce sales are projected to steadily grow in the coming years, with a slight deceleration in 2025 and 2026. By 2027, sales are anticipated to reach $8 trillion, marking a 7.6% growth rate.

By region

The United States spearheads e-commerce growth, poised to double sales by 2025. In Europe, a slightly slower growth rate of 47% is anticipated, while China, despite having the highest e-commerce sales, is expected to see a 15% growth in its online retail sector.

Analysts attribute China’s comparatively slower rate to the country’s previous peak in online shopping growth. Other regions in the rest of the world will see an average proportional growth of 52%.

By country

Examining country-specific trends, the Philippines leads with a remarkable 24.1% year-on-year growth in online shopping sales. India follows closely with a projected 22.3% increase, while Australia and Indonesia boast annual growth rates of 20%. 

Southeast Asian countries, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, show strong potential, with growth rates of 18% and 16%, respectively, emphasizing the region’s increasing reliance on online shopping.

Completing the top 10, Vietnam boasts an annual growth rate of 12.5%, while South Korea follows closely with 10.5%.

In terms of total sales, China leads the global e-commerce market, surpassing $3 trillion in sales as of 2023, contributing to over 50% of worldwide e-commerce sales. The United States follows, with $1,163.49 billion. 

These two countries are expected to continue to hold the top spot in generating e-commerce sales in 2024.

By market

B2B ecommerce

According to insights from a study on the ITA website, B2B ecommerce sales have shown consistent year-over-year growth for the past decade, culminating in a projected global value of USD$28 trillion by 2024. 

Notably, heavy industries such as advanced manufacturing, energy, healthcare, and professional business services significantly contribute to this surge in B2B sales. 

The forecast indicates that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is poised to command 80% of the B2B market share by 2026, while smaller-sized markets like Latin America and the Middle East are expected to experience substantial growth in B2B ecommerce value.

B2C ecommerce

Also, as per findings from ITA, the leading segments in ecommerce encompass fashion, furniture, and consumer electronics, with biohealth pharmaceuticals (BHPHC) emerging as the fastest-growing product segment. 

The forecast suggests a steady growth trajectory for global B2C ecommerce revenue, projecting it to reach USD$4.1 trillion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.4%.

Final words

As we approach 2024, the global e-commerce landscape promises both challenges and opportunities. To thrive in this competitive environment, businesses must strategically optimize across supply, demand elasticity, and competition—the key pillars of commerce. Success will hinge on adaptability and strategic alignment.

FAQS